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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 11 Nov 2015)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and James Peach (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 5-11,5-11,1-11:11-8,6-11,11-4,8-11,11-3:5-11,13-11,11-5,5-11,3-11:11-7,11-9,11-6:12-10,2-11,11-5,11-8. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,064, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for James Peach: 13,577, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Rusty Pearce. James Peach won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 200% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 14,362 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 4,787. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +2% and Rusty Pearce changes to -3.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +0.9% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -1.9%. Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is +0.6% and for Rusty Pearce is -1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 88%, Rusty Pearce: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 83%, Rusty Pearce: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 4,986, level confidence: 63%. Final level for James Peach: 13,635, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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