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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Z v Weston (Wed 11 Nov 2015)Match played between Frank Molony (home) and Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald (away).Match won by Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald. Result: 7-11,6-11,7-11. Starting level for Frank Molony: 2,674, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald: 3,869, level confidence: 65%. Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Frank Molony. Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald played 65% better than Frank Molony in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald actually played at a level of 4,132 and Frank Molony at a level of 2,504. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald changes to +5.6% and Frank Molony changes to -4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald becomes +2.7% and for Frank Molony becomes -2.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald is +2% and for Frank Molony is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald: 81%, Frank Molony: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald: 76%, Frank Molony: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Frank Molony: 2,621, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Dan 'Has A Sexy Gf' Macdonald: 3,943, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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