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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 18 Nov 2015)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Antonio De La Torre (away).Match won by Antonio De La Torre. Result: 9-11,8-11,11-7,11-3,5-11:11-6,7-11,11-4,11-9:11-4,7-11,11-6,9-11,11-4:8-11,7-11,11-6,11-4,11-8:11-9,8-11,7-11,11-3,13-11. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,939, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,555, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Antonio De La Torre. Antonio De La Torre won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antonio De La Torre played 7% better than Luke Bishop in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antonio De La Torre actually played at a level of 9,535 and Luke Bishop at a level of 8,917. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre changes to +6.7% and Luke Bishop changes to -10.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre becomes +2.5% and for Luke Bishop becomes -3.3%. Given Antonio De La Torre's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre is +1.6% and for Luke Bishop is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antonio De La Torre: 84%, Luke Bishop: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antonio De La Torre: 75%, Luke Bishop: 60%. A final adjustment of -5.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,242, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,242, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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