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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Redland Z (Wed 18 Nov 2015)Match played between Frank Ellis (home) and Dan West (away).Match won by Dan West. Result: 6-11,5-11,4-11:11-7,8-11,11-4,7-11,5-11:11-3,11-8,10-12,11-7:11-3,11-8,11-8:11-13,11-9,11-2,5-11,11-9. Starting level for Frank Ellis: 5,979, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Dan West: 12,451, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Dan West to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Frank Ellis. Dan West won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan West played 120% better than Frank Ellis in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan West actually played at a level of 12,798 and Frank Ellis at a level of 5,817. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan West changes to +1.7% and Frank Ellis changes to -1.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan West becomes +0.8% and for Frank Ellis becomes -1.1%. Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Frank Ellis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Dan West is +0.5% and for Frank Ellis is -0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan West: 89%, Frank Ellis: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan West: 86%, Frank Ellis: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Frank Ellis: 5,925, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Dan West: 12,497, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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