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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Weston (Wed 25 Nov 2015)Match played between Emma Chorley (home) and Chris Clare (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 5-11,1-11,3-11:6-11,9-11,11-3,11-8,11-9:3-11,4-11,5-11:8-11,11-8,5-11,14-12,11-13:?-?. Starting level for Emma Chorley: 4,634, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Clare: 8,614, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Emma Chorley. Chris Clare won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 267% better than Emma Chorley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Clare actually played at a level of 12,098 and Emma Chorley at a level of 3,299. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to +27% and Emma Chorley changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes +7.1% and for Emma Chorley becomes -8.8%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is +4.7% and for Emma Chorley is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Chorley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 88%, Emma Chorley: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 63%, Emma Chorley: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Chorley: 4,407, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Chris Clare: 9,005, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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