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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 28 Oct 2015)Match played between Antonio De La Torre (home) and Richard King (away).Match won by Antonio De La Torre. Result: 11-1,11-8,11-9:11-4,4-11,6-11,11-9,8-11:9-11,10-12,14-16:11-8,11-7,11-6:11-4,9-11,11-4,11-7. Starting level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,511, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Richard King: 4,813, level confidence: 70%. Antonio De La Torre to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Richard King. Antonio De La Torre won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Antonio De La Torre played 83% better than Richard King in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Antonio De La Torre actually played at a level of 8,666 and Richard King at a level of 4,727. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre changes to +1.4% and Richard King changes to -1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre becomes +0.7% and for Richard King becomes -0.7%. Given Antonio De La Torre's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Antonio De La Torre is +0.5% and for Richard King is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Antonio De La Torre: 78%, Richard King: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Antonio De La Torre: 77%, Richard King: 82%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Antonio De La Torre: 8,555, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Richard King: 4,790, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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