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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 02 Dec 2015)Match played between Richard King (home) and James Peach (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 3-11,6-11,10-12:8-11,6-11,5-11:8-11,12-10,6-11,11-5,11-3:7-11,11-8,11-7,11-5:8-11,11-7,11-13,7-11. Starting level for Richard King: 5,988, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for James Peach: 13,876, level confidence: 68%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 132% better than Richard King. James Peach won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 79% better than Richard King in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,269 and 13,876 without affecting his level. In this case, James Peach played at level 11,148 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 11,598 (based on typical behaviour), Richard King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Richard King changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Richard King becomes +1.5%. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Richard King is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 82%, Richard King: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 72%, Richard King: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 6,043, level confidence: 68%. Final level for James Peach: 13,855, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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