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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Z v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 04 Nov 2015)Match played between Roshan Bharos (home) and John Welton (away).Match won by Roshan Bharos. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-5. Starting level for Roshan Bharos: 11,183, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for John Welton: 5,586, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Roshan Bharos to win as he is currently playing 100% better than John Welton. Roshan Bharos won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Bharos played 74% better than John Welton in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Roshan Bharos was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,297 and 11,183 without affecting his level. In this case, Roshan Bharos played at level 9,748 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Roshan Bharos would normally have been playing at level 9,793 (based on typical behaviour), John Welton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos changes to 0% and John Welton changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos becomes 0% and for John Welton becomes 0%. Given John Welton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Roshan Bharos is 0% and for John Welton is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Bharos: 79%, John Welton: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Bharos: 74%, John Welton: 83%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roshan Bharos: 11,188, level confidence: 74%. Final level for John Welton: 5,595, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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