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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Z (Wed 09 Dec 2015)Match played between James Peach (home) and Jeremy Harris (away).Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-6:12-10,11-7,11-6:11-3,11-5,11-5:11-8,11-9,11-8:11-13,11-6,11-6,11-8. Starting level for James Peach: 13,855, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 6,213, level confidence: 65%. James Peach to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Jeremy Harris. James Peach won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 56% better than Jeremy Harris in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,528 and 13,855 without affecting his level. In this case, James Peach played at level 10,678 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 11,731 (based on typical behaviour), Jeremy Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Jeremy Harris changes to +6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Jeremy Harris becomes +2.6%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Jeremy Harris is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 84%, Jeremy Harris: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 70%, Jeremy Harris: 68%. A final adjustment of +5.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Peach: 13,931, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 6,955, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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