|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Lansdown 2 (Wed 21 Oct 2015)Match played between Will Kingwell (home) and Jeremy Goulding (away).Match won by Will Kingwell. Result: 9-10,9-6,9-0,9-3:9-3,9-0,9-4:9-7,9-6,6-9,9-1:9-3,9-7,10-8:9-7,9-1,10-9. Starting level for Will Kingwell: 5,500, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Jeremy Goulding: 4,315, level confidence: 51%. Will Kingwell to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Jeremy Goulding. Will Kingwell won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will Kingwell played 29% better than Jeremy Goulding in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will Kingwell actually played at a level of 5,539 and Jeremy Goulding at a level of 4,284. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will Kingwell changes to +0.6% and Jeremy Goulding changes to -0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will Kingwell becomes +0.4% and for Jeremy Goulding becomes -0.3%. Given Will Kingwell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Will Kingwell is 0% and for Jeremy Goulding is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will Kingwell: 68%, Jeremy Goulding: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will Kingwell: 67%, Jeremy Goulding: 71%. A final adjustment of +2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Will Kingwell: 5,575, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Jeremy Goulding: 4,482, level confidence: 71%. Notes
|