|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Lansdown 2 (Wed 21 Oct 2015)Match played between Andy Killey (home) and Jonathan Cordier (away).Match won by Andy Killey. Result: 9-7,9-6,6-9,9-1. Starting level for Andy Killey: 4,408, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Jonathan Cordier: 1,952, level confidence: 69%. Andy Killey to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Jonathan Cordier. Andy Killey won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Killey played 24% better than Jonathan Cordier in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Killey was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,003 and 4,408 without affecting his level. As Andy Killey has played below his allowed range at 2,693, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Killey would normally have been playing at level 3,717 (based on typical behaviour), Jonathan Cordier played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Killey changes to -7.5% and Jonathan Cordier changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Killey becomes -3.2% and for Jonathan Cordier becomes +6.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Andy Killey is -2.4% and for Jonathan Cordier is +4.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Killey: 76%, Jonathan Cordier: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Killey: 56%, Jonathan Cordier: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Killey: 4,317, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Jonathan Cordier: 2,046, level confidence: 61%. Notes
|