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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside (Wed 25 Nov 2015)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-1:9-3,9-0,9-5:9-1,9-0,9-4:9-4,9-0,9-0:9-2,9-7,9-0. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 5,894, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Frost: 3,662, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Paul Frost. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 379% better than Paul Frost in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 10,168 and Paul Frost at a level of 2,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 73% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 54% and 54% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +50% and Paul Frost changes to -54%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +13% and for Paul Frost becomes -16%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +9.4% and for Paul Frost is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Frost is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 87%, Paul Frost: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 51%, Paul Frost: 49%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 6,437, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Paul Frost: 3,482, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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