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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Thornbury A v Lansdown 2 (Wed 28 Oct 2015)Match played between Ewan Davies- Smith (home) and Chris Brooks (away).Match won by Ewan Davies- Smith. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,317, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Chris Brooks: 1,566, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Ewan Davies- Smith to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Chris Brooks. Ewan Davies- Smith won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ewan Davies- Smith played 379% better than Chris Brooks in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ewan Davies- Smith actually played at a level of 4,988 and Chris Brooks at a level of 1,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith changes to +32% and Chris Brooks changes to -31%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith becomes +10.7% and for Chris Brooks becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Ewan Davies- Smith is +8% and for Chris Brooks is -9.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Brooks is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ewan Davies- Smith: 83%, Chris Brooks: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ewan Davies- Smith: 55%, Chris Brooks: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ewan Davies- Smith: 3,589, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Chris Brooks: 1,494, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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