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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Redland B v University of Bath 1 (Wed 11 Nov 2015)Match played between Ben Dillistone (home) and Chris Winzer (away).Match won by Chris Winzer. Result: 7-9,1-9,5-9. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 3,227, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Winzer: 6,210, level confidence: 60%. Chris Winzer to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Ben Dillistone. Chris Winzer won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Winzer played 50% better than Ben Dillistone in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Winzer was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,765 and 6,210 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris Winzer played at level 5,175 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Winzer would normally have been playing at level 5,520 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Dillistone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Winzer changes to 0% and Ben Dillistone changes to +3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Winzer becomes 0% and for Ben Dillistone becomes +2.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Winzer is 0% and for Ben Dillistone is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Winzer: 77%, Ben Dillistone: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Winzer: 68%, Ben Dillistone: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 3,275, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Chris Winzer: 6,202, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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