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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Westbury David Lloyd A v Redland B (Wed 18 Nov 2015)Match played between Chris Hall (home) and Ben Dillistone (away).Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 9-2,9-2,9-5. Starting level for Chris Hall: 2,686, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 3,275, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Ben Dillistone to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Chris Hall. Chris Hall won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 76% better than Ben Dillistone in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 3,935 and Ben Dillistone at a level of 2,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +39% and Ben Dillistone changes to -41%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +13.3% and for Ben Dillistone becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +10% and for Ben Dillistone is -9.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Dillistone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 90%, Ben Dillistone: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 62%, Ben Dillistone: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Hall: 2,950, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 3,115, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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