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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 1 v David Lloyd Lovecars (Thu 19 Nov 2015)Match played between Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh (home) and Alan Brown (away).Match won by Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh. Result: 9-0,9-3,9-4. Starting level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 3,870, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Alan Brown: 2,238, level confidence: 42%. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Alan Brown. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh played 97% better than Alan Brown in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh actually played at a level of 4,131 and Alan Brown at a level of 2,097. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh changes to +2.9% and Alan Brown changes to -5.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh becomes +1.8% and for Alan Brown becomes -3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh is +1.3% and for Alan Brown is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 87%, Alan Brown: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 81%, Alan Brown: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 3,918, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Alan Brown: 2,185, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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