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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 1 v David Lloyd Lovecars (Thu 19 Nov 2015)Match played between Chris Winzer (home) and Reggie Williams (away).Match won by Chris Winzer. Result: 9-2,9-4,9-4. Starting level for Chris Winzer: 6,202, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Reggie Williams: 2,019, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Chris Winzer to win as he is currently playing 207% better than Reggie Williams. Chris Winzer won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Winzer played 67% better than Reggie Williams in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Winzer was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,228 and 6,202 without affecting his level. In this case, Chris Winzer played at level 3,955 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Winzer would normally have been playing at level 4,639 (based on typical behaviour), Reggie Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Winzer changes to 0% and Reggie Williams changes to +8.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Winzer becomes 0% and for Reggie Williams becomes +4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Winzer is 0% and for Reggie Williams is +3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Winzer: 81%, Reggie Williams: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Winzer: 60%, Reggie Williams: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Winzer: 6,193, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Reggie Williams: 2,084, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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