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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: David Lloyd Lovecars v Redland B (Wed 25 Nov 2015)Match played between Reggie Williams (home) and Mark Taylor (away).Match won by Mark Taylor. Result: 2-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Reggie Williams: 2,084, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Mark Taylor: 2,895, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Mark Taylor to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Reggie Williams. Mark Taylor won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Taylor played 134% better than Reggie Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Taylor actually played at a level of 3,757 and Reggie Williams at a level of 1,606. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Taylor changes to +19% and Reggie Williams changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Taylor becomes +7.1% and for Reggie Williams becomes -10%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Mark Taylor is +5.3% and for Reggie Williams is -7.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Reggie Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Taylor: 90%, Reggie Williams: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Taylor: 69%, Reggie Williams: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Reggie Williams: 2,009, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Mark Taylor: 3,045, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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