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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 1 (Thu 26 Nov 2015)Match played between Henry Duncanson (home) and Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh (away).Match won by Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh. Result: 10-8,8-10,1-9,2-9:7-9,7-9,9-3,6-9:7-9,4-9,9-4,10-8,9-2:10-8,9-1,9-3:?-?. Starting level for Henry Duncanson: 3,131, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 3,918, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Henry Duncanson. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh won 75% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh played 27% better than Henry Duncanson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh actually played at a level of 3,952 and Henry Duncanson at a level of 3,104. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh changes to +0.7% and Henry Duncanson changes to -0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh becomes +0.4% and for Henry Duncanson becomes -0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh is +0.3% and for Henry Duncanson is -0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 89%, Henry Duncanson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 88%, Henry Duncanson: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Henry Duncanson: 3,114, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Cameron 'The Grinder' Kavanagh: 3,925, level confidence: 88%. Notes
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