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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Westbury David Lloyd B v Shepton Mallet B (Wed 14 Oct 2015)Match played between Mike Shorland (home) and Chris Pike (away).Match won by Chris Pike. Result: 9-3,2-9,4-9,5-9. Starting level for Mike Shorland: 1,561, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Pike: 1,333, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Mike Shorland to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Chris Pike. Chris Pike won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Pike played 25% better than Mike Shorland in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Pike actually played at a level of 1,611 and Mike Shorland at a level of 1,292. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Pike changes to +18% and Mike Shorland changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Pike becomes +8.9% and for Mike Shorland becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Pike is +6.6% and for Mike Shorland is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Shorland is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Pike: 91%, Mike Shorland: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Pike: 75%, Mike Shorland: 72%. A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Shorland: 1,516, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Chris Pike: 1,434, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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