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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Shepton Mallet B v Westbury David Lloyd B (Tue 17 Nov 2015)Match played between Dominic Feather (home) and Vivi B (away).Match won by Vivi B. Result: 3-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Dominic Feather: 1,057, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Vivi B: 1,607, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Vivi B to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Dominic Feather. Vivi B won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vivi B played 118% better than Dominic Feather in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vivi B actually played at a level of 1,924 and Dominic Feather at a level of 883. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vivi B changes to +15% and Dominic Feather changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vivi B becomes +7.2% and for Dominic Feather becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Vivi B is +5.4% and for Dominic Feather is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dominic Feather is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vivi B: 90%, Dominic Feather: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vivi B: 75%, Dominic Feather: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dominic Feather: 1,005, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Vivi B: 1,691, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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