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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Gordano A v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 21 Oct 2015)Match played between Darran Venn (home) and Kirk Woodward (away).Match won by Darran Venn. Result: 9-3,3-9,9-4,9-0:9-2,9-6,9-2:10-9,9-3,9-6:6-9,0-9,8-10:9-2,9-1,9-5. Starting level for Darran Venn: 3,571, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Kirk Woodward: 1,823, level confidence: 57%. Darran Venn to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Kirk Woodward. Darran Venn won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darran Venn played 29% better than Kirk Woodward in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Darran Venn was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,702 and 3,571 without affecting his level. As Darran Venn has played below his allowed range at 2,523, his level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that Darran Venn would normally have been playing at level 3,155 (based on typical behaviour), Kirk Woodward played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darran Venn changes to -5% and Kirk Woodward changes to +9.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darran Venn becomes -2.6% and for Kirk Woodward becomes +5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Darran Venn is -1.9% and for Kirk Woodward is +3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darran Venn: 71%, Kirk Woodward: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darran Venn: 57%, Kirk Woodward: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Darran Venn: 3,512, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Kirk Woodward: 1,895, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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