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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Redland Z v Kingsdown Stallions (Wed 02 Dec 2015)Match played between Tomasz Staruzyk (home) and David Mortimer (away).Match won by Tomasz Staruzyk. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 1,503, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for David Mortimer: 794, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Tomasz Staruzyk to win as he is currently playing 89% better than David Mortimer. Tomasz Staruzyk won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tomasz Staruzyk played 209% better than David Mortimer in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tomasz Staruzyk actually played at a level of 1,920 and David Mortimer at a level of 621. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tomasz Staruzyk changes to +19% and David Mortimer changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tomasz Staruzyk becomes +9.2% and for David Mortimer becomes -7.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Tomasz Staruzyk is +6.9% and for David Mortimer is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Mortimer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tomasz Staruzyk: 71%, David Mortimer: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tomasz Staruzyk: 56%, David Mortimer: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 1,605, level confidence: 56%. Final level for David Mortimer: 755, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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