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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: University of Bath 3 v Lansdown 3 (Wed 11 Nov 2015)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Alex Miller (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 9-7,9-2,9-3. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,463, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex Miller: 1,102, level confidence: 47%. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Alex Miller. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 52% better than Alex Miller in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan actually played at a level of 1,567 and Alex Miller at a level of 1,029. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +3.9% and Alex Miller changes to -6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +2.9% and for Alex Miller becomes -4.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +2.2% and for Alex Miller is -3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 86%, Alex Miller: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 81%, Alex Miller: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,493, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Alex Miller: 1,065, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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