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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: University of Bath 3 v Gordano B (Wed 21 Oct 2015)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Edwin Swidenbank (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 9-7,9-6,2-9,1-9,8-10:9-7,2-9,10-8,9-7:9-5,9-3,9-7:9-1,9-0,9-1:9-1,9-6,1-9,9-6. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,280, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 2,053, level confidence: 61%. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Edwin Swidenbank won 60% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 13% better than Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan in this match. As Edwin Swidenbank has played below his allowed range at 1,600, his level reduction is 10.9% before damping. On the assumption that Edwin Swidenbank would normally have been playing at level 1,924 (based on typical behaviour), Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to -7.5% and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes -4% and for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +6.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is -3% and for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 78%, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 65%, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 62%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,347, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 2,028, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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