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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Gordano B v University of Bath 3 (Wed 25 Nov 2015)Match played between Rob Ritchie (home) and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 8-9,7-9,4-9. Starting level for Rob Ritchie: 880, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,493, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Rob Ritchie. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 32% better than Rob Ritchie in this match. As Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan has played below his allowed range at 1,206, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan would normally have been playing at level 1,380 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Ritchie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 6.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to -2.5% and Rob Ritchie changes to +6.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes -2.1% and for Rob Ritchie becomes +4.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is -1.6% and for Rob Ritchie is +3.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 87%, Rob Ritchie: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 77%, Rob Ritchie: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Ritchie: 911, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,467, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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