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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Bath Leisure Squash 1 v University of Bath 3 (Wed 02 Dec 2015)Match played between Clinton Lucas (home) and Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 9-10,3-9,2-9. Starting level for Clinton Lucas: 899, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,467, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Clinton Lucas. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 48% better than Clinton Lucas in this match. In this case, Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played at level 1,348 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan would normally have been playing at level 1,369 (based on typical behaviour), Clinton Lucas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to 0% and Clinton Lucas changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes 0% and for Clinton Lucas becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is 0% and for Clinton Lucas is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 86%, Clinton Lucas: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 82%, Clinton Lucas: 30%. A final adjustment of +3.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Clinton Lucas: 965, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,465, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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