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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Capybaras v Redland Eagles (Wed 09 Dec 2015)Match played between Giles Sharley (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Giles Sharley. Result: 7-9,9-7,9-2,9-4. Starting level for Giles Sharley: 1,254, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 907, level confidence: 65%. Giles Sharley to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Giles Sharley won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Giles Sharley played 25% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. As Giles Sharley has played below his allowed range at 1,150, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Giles Sharley would normally have been playing at level 1,213 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Giles Sharley changes to -1% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Giles Sharley becomes -0.9% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +2.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Giles Sharley is -0.7% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Giles Sharley: 80%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Giles Sharley: 76%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Giles Sharley: 1,244, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 924, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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