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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: David Lloyd C v Workout Harbourside (Thu 10 Dec 2015)Match played between Ben Whiteley (home) and Sam Faulcondbridge (away).Match won by Ben Whiteley. Result: 3-9,9-1,9-5,4-9,9-6:2-9,1-9,1-9:9-10,3-9,5-9:3-9,5-9,6-9:3-9,3-9,4-9. Starting level for Ben Whiteley: 1,034, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Sam Faulcondbridge: 1,630, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Sam Faulcondbridge to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Ben Whiteley. Ben Whiteley won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Whiteley played 9% better than Sam Faulcondbridge in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Whiteley actually played at a level of 1,355 and Sam Faulcondbridge at a level of 1,243. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Whiteley changes to +24% and Sam Faulcondbridge changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Whiteley becomes +12.8% and for Sam Faulcondbridge becomes -9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Ben Whiteley is +9.6% and for Sam Faulcondbridge is -7.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam Faulcondbridge is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Whiteley: 80%, Sam Faulcondbridge: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Whiteley: 61%, Sam Faulcondbridge: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben Whiteley: 1,132, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Sam Faulcondbridge: 1,550, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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