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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 4 v Bradley Stoke Squash Club B (Wed 14 Oct 2015)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and Andy Horton (away).Match won by Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Result: 10-9,9-0,9-4. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 816, level confidence: 25%. Starting level for Andy Horton: 576, level confidence: 56%. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Andy Horton. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played 50% better than Andy Horton in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex 'Anger Management' Snook actually played at a level of 841 and Andy Horton at a level of 559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to +2.5% and Andy Horton changes to -1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes +2.5% and for Andy Horton becomes -1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is +1.9% and for Andy Horton is -0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 50%, Andy Horton: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 49%, Andy Horton: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 833, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Andy Horton: 573, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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