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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: Weston Shankers v University of Bath 4 (Wed 21 Oct 2015)Match played between Emma Lane (home) and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (away).Match won by Emma Lane. Result: 9-3,9-0,9-2:9-2,9-1,10-8:9-10,10-8,5-9,4-9:9-5,9-0,9-3:0-9,1-9,2-9. Starting level for Emma Lane: 1,679, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 833, level confidence: 47%. Emma Lane to win as she is currently playing 102% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Emma Lane won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Lane played 134% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emma Lane actually played at a level of 1,809 and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook at a level of 773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Lane changes to +3.2% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to -5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Lane becomes +2.5% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes -4.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Emma Lane is +1.9% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is -3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Lane: 89%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Lane: 83%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 64%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Lane: 1,715, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 810, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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