|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 4 v Kingsdown (Wed 02 Dec 2015)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and Andrew Harson (away).Match won by Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Result: 9-2,9-5,9-5. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 877, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Andrew Harson: 506, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Andrew Harson. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played 52% better than Andrew Harson in this match. In this case, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played at level 788 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook would normally have been playing at level 806 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Harson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to 0% and Andrew Harson changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes 0% and for Andrew Harson becomes +1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is 0% and for Andrew Harson is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 89%, Andrew Harson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 83%, Andrew Harson: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 876, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Andrew Harson: 512, level confidence: 79%. Notes
|