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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: University of Bath 4 v Westbury David Lloyd C (Wed 04 Nov 2015)Match played between Rob Dewar (home) and Magda Marshall (away).Match won by Rob Dewar. Result: 9-0,9-4,9-6. Starting level for Rob Dewar: 939, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Magda Marshall: 497, level confidence: 62%. Rob Dewar to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Magda Marshall. Rob Dewar won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Dewar played 67% better than Magda Marshall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Dewar was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 731 and 939 without affecting his level. In this case, Rob Dewar played at level 835 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rob Dewar would normally have been playing at level 840 (based on typical behaviour), Magda Marshall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Dewar changes to 0% and Magda Marshall changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Dewar becomes 0% and for Magda Marshall becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Rob Dewar is 0% and for Magda Marshall is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Dewar: 89%, Magda Marshall: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Dewar: 84%, Magda Marshall: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Dewar: 938, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Magda Marshall: 498, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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