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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Weston String Strokers v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 22 Oct 2015)Match played between George 'Warm-Up' Weston (home) and Charlie Grimshaw (away).Match won by George 'Warm-Up' Weston. Result: 9-7,9-10,9-3,9-3. Starting level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 2,831, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Charlie Grimshaw: 1,657, level confidence: 49%. George 'Warm-Up' Weston to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Charlie Grimshaw. George 'Warm-Up' Weston won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Warm-Up' Weston played 25% better than Charlie Grimshaw in this match. As George 'Warm-Up' Weston has played below his allowed range at 2,214, his level reduction is 6.6% before damping. On the assumption that George 'Warm-Up' Weston would normally have been playing at level 2,611 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Grimshaw played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston changes to -3.1% and Charlie Grimshaw changes to +9.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston becomes -2.1% and for Charlie Grimshaw becomes +4.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston is -1.6% and for Charlie Grimshaw is +3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 88%, Charlie Grimshaw: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 76%, Charlie Grimshaw: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 2,794, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Charlie Grimshaw: 1,722, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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