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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Battle Oats v University of Bath 2 (Thu 22 Oct 2015)Match played between Matt Brunet (home) and Chris Goodrum (away).Match won by Matt Brunet. Result: 9-2,10-8,9-0. Starting level for Matt Brunet: 1,243, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Chris Goodrum: 438, level confidence: 29%. Matt Brunet to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Chris Goodrum. Matt Brunet won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Brunet played 71% better than Chris Goodrum in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matt Brunet was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 699 and 1,243 without affecting his level. In this case, Matt Brunet played at level 849 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matt Brunet would normally have been playing at level 962 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Goodrum played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Brunet changes to 0% and Chris Goodrum changes to +7.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Brunet becomes 0% and for Chris Goodrum becomes +5.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Matt Brunet is 0% and for Chris Goodrum is +4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Brunet: 77%, Chris Goodrum: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Brunet: 60%, Chris Goodrum: 41%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Brunet: 1,246, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Chris Goodrum: 456, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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