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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd Battle Oats v Weston String Strokers (Wed 28 Oct 2015)Match played between Matt Sharp (home) and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe (away).Match won by Matt Sharp. Result: 9-8,9-1,9-7. Starting level for Matt Sharp: 1,084, level confidence: 39%. Starting level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,468, level confidence: 69%. Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Matt Sharp. Matt Sharp won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Sharp played 40% better than Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Sharp actually played at a level of 1,490 and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe at a level of 1,068. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Sharp changes to +31% and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Sharp becomes +15.8% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Matt Sharp is +12% and for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt Sharp is limited to +10% and Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Sharp: 63%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Sharp: 46%, Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matt Sharp: 1,194, level confidence: 46%. Final level for Joe 'The Fox' Radcliffe: 1,401, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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