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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Shepton Mallet A v Weston String Strokers (Wed 04 Nov 2015)Match played between Adam Sindall-White (home) and Chris Scott (away).Match won by Adam Sindall-White. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,772, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Chris Scott: 2,109, level confidence: 65%. Adam Sindall-White to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Chris Scott. Adam Sindall-White won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Sindall-White played 209% better than Chris Scott in this match. Adam Sindall-White has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 4164. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Sindall-White actually played at a level of 5,209 and Chris Scott at a level of 1,686. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White changes to +17% and Chris Scott changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White becomes +6% and for Chris Scott becomes -6.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White is +4.5% and for Chris Scott is -4.9%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Adam Sindall-White is +15%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Sindall-White: 76%, Chris Scott: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Sindall-White: 58%, Chris Scott: 61%. A final adjustment of -3.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,965, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Chris Scott: 2,072, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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