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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland B v Redland Anacondas (Wed 19 Nov 2008)Match played between Barney Elworthy (home) and Danny Webster (away).Match won by Barney Elworthy. Result: 9-1,9-2,9-2:9-3,9-1,4-9,9-2:9-1,9-3,9-0:7-9,9-7,9-6,2-9,7-9:?-?. Starting level for Barney Elworthy: 6,368, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Danny Webster: 2,940, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Barney Elworthy to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Danny Webster. Barney Elworthy won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Elworthy played 134% better than Danny Webster in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barney Elworthy actually played at a level of 6,619 and Danny Webster at a level of 2,829. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy changes to +2.7% and Danny Webster changes to -2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Elworthy becomes +1.5% and for Danny Webster becomes -1.4%. Given Barney Elworthy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Barney Elworthy is +1% and for Danny Webster is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Elworthy: 76%, Danny Webster: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Elworthy: 73%, Danny Webster: 84%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Elworthy: 6,450, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Danny Webster: 2,917, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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