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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Weston (Wed 13 Jan 2016)Match played between Richard King (home) and Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert (away).Match won by Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert. Result: 6-11,8-11,11-6,9-11. Starting level for Richard King: 6,019, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert: 4,352, level confidence: 10%. Richard King to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert. Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert played 22% better than Richard King in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert actually played at a level of 5,644 and Richard King at a level of 4,641. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert changes to +25% and Richard King changes to -4.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert becomes +7.9% and for Richard King becomes -2%. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.2% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert is +6% and for Richard King is -1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert: 32%, Richard King: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert: 24%, Richard King: 54%. A final adjustment of +17.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 5,889, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Jonny 'Le Cock' Taubert: 6,439, level confidence: 24%. Notes
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