|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Workout Harbourside (Wed 17 Feb 2016)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Abdullah Soloman (away).Match won by Abdullah Soloman. Result: 8-11,11-8,8-11,9-11:11-6,11-8,11-8:6-11,9-11,11-4,12-10,11-7:13-11,11-9,11-8:11-9,1-11,4-11,3-11. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,930, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,394, level confidence: 40%. Abdullah Soloman to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Luke Bishop. Abdullah Soloman won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Soloman played 21% better than Luke Bishop in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Soloman actually played at a level of 11,717 and Luke Bishop at a level of 9,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Soloman changes to +2.6% and Luke Bishop changes to -1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Soloman becomes +1.3% and for Luke Bishop becomes -0.7%. Given Abdullah Soloman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Abdullah Soloman is +0.8% and for Luke Bishop is -0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Soloman: 64%, Luke Bishop: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Soloman: 62%, Luke Bishop: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,873, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Abdullah Soloman: 11,467, level confidence: 62%. Notes
|