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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 17 Feb 2016)Match played between Joe Brooke (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Joe Brooke. Result: 11-7,11-5,13-11:11-9,12-10,11-4:11-4,12-10,6-11,12-10:13-11,11-5,5-11,11-7:11-8,11-5,11-5. Starting level for Joe Brooke: 6,299, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,466, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Joe Brooke. Joe Brooke won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Brooke played 53% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Brooke actually played at a level of 7,897 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 5,158. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Brooke changes to +25% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Brooke becomes +7.3% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -6.1%. Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Joe Brooke is +5.2% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -4.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Brooke: 78%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Brooke: 62%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 67%. A final adjustment of +1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Joe Brooke: 6,623, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,421, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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