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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside v Redland Anacondas (Wed 24 Feb 2016)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-9. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 7,154, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Dale Diment: 5,700, level confidence: 61%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Dale Diment. Jeremy Harris won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 33% better than Dale Diment in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Harris actually played at a level of 7,365 and Dale Diment at a level of 5,536. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to +1.9% and Dale Diment changes to -2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes +1% and for Dale Diment becomes -1.5%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is +0.7% and for Dale Diment is -1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 93%, Dale Diment: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 90%, Dale Diment: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 7,193, level confidence: 90%. Final level for Dale Diment: 5,630, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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