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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 24 Feb 2016)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Declan Heaslewood (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 13-11,8-11,11-6,11-7. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,102, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Declan Heaslewood: 3,710, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Declan Heaslewood. Andy Ewings won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 24% better than Declan Heaslewood in this match. As Andy Ewings has played below his allowed range at 4,677, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Ewings would normally have been playing at level 4,940 (based on typical behaviour), Declan Heaslewood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to -1.2% and Declan Heaslewood changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes -0.7% and for Declan Heaslewood becomes +1.7%. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is -0.5% and for Declan Heaslewood is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 82%, Declan Heaslewood: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 78%, Declan Heaslewood: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 5,067, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Declan Heaslewood: 3,752, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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