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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 24 Feb 2016)Match played between Richard Colman (home) and Adam Jefferies (away).Match won by Richard Colman. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-0. Starting level for Richard Colman: 4,783, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Adam Jefferies: 2,027, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Richard Colman to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Adam Jefferies. Richard Colman won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Colman played 560% better than Adam Jefferies in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Colman actually played at a level of 7,999 and Adam Jefferies at a level of 1,212. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 67% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Colman changes to +40% and Adam Jefferies changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Colman becomes +11.5% and for Adam Jefferies becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Richard Colman is +8.6% and for Adam Jefferies is -8.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam Jefferies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Colman: 84%, Adam Jefferies: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Colman: 50%, Adam Jefferies: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,186, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Adam Jefferies: 1,943, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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