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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Weston (Wed 20 Jan 2016)Match played between Sam Davidson (home) and Chris Clare (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-8,9-11,11-13. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 6,437, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Chris Clare: 9,006, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Sam Davidson. Chris Clare won 60% of the games and 49% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 7% better than Sam Davidson in this match. As Chris Clare has played below his allowed range at 7,567, his level reduction is 9.9% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Clare would normally have been playing at level 8,692 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Davidson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 10.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to -6.4% and Sam Davidson changes to +10.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes -2.4% and for Sam Davidson becomes +3.6%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Sam Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is -1.6% and for Sam Davidson is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 87%, Sam Davidson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 76%, Sam Davidson: 67%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Davidson: 6,647, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Chris Clare: 8,834, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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