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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Weston v Thornbury A (Wed 24 Feb 2016)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-8,11-6,10-12,11-5. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 9,873, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 6,092, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Callum Davidson. Luke Bishop won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 30% better than Callum Davidson in this match. As Luke Bishop has played below his allowed range at 8,183, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Luke Bishop would normally have been playing at level 9,231 (based on typical behaviour), Callum Davidson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 6.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to -2.5% and Callum Davidson changes to +6.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes -1.3% and for Callum Davidson becomes +2.6%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is -0.8% and for Callum Davidson is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 92%, Callum Davidson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 82%, Callum Davidson: 76%. A final adjustment of -2.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 9,427, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 6,177, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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