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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 27 Jan 2016)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Mike Harris (away).Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 2-11,3-11,4-11:11-4,11-4,11-4:11-5,11-9,11-9:11-8,11-5,11-2:?-?. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,293, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike Harris: 17,812, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 183% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Mike Harris won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 267% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 20,273 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 5,529. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +7.8% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +2.4% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -3%. Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is +1.3% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 92%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 81%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 80%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,314, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Mike Harris: 18,031, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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