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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Lansdown 1 (Wed 02 Mar 2016)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 9-11,5-11,8-11:5-11,6-11,11-5,11-4,11-8:11-8,11-9,11-8:7-11,8-11,9-11:11-3,11-6,11-5. Starting level for Dale Diment: 5,630, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,281, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Dale Diment. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 52% better than Dale Diment in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 7,323 and Dale Diment at a level of 4,829. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +14% and Dale Diment changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +4.7% and for Dale Diment becomes -5.1%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +3.3% and for Dale Diment is -3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 90%, Dale Diment: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 77%, Dale Diment: 74%. A final adjustment of -1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 5,404, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,349, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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