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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Konrad Tyma (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 11-9,12-10,4-11,7-11,11-8. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 6,049, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Konrad Tyma: 4,277, level confidence: 57%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Konrad Tyma. Callum Davidson won 60% of the games and 48% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 5% better than Konrad Tyma in this match. As Callum Davidson has played below his allowed range at 5,007, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Callum Davidson would normally have been playing at level 5,826 (based on typical behaviour), Konrad Tyma played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to -6.4% and Konrad Tyma changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes -2.6% and for Konrad Tyma becomes +4.3%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is -1.9% and for Konrad Tyma is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 89%, Konrad Tyma: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 77%, Konrad Tyma: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 5,929, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Konrad Tyma: 4,408, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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