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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Weston (Wed 03 Feb 2016)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Chris Clare (away).Match won by Chris Clare. Result: 2-11,8-11,7-11. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 5,036, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Chris Clare: 8,763, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Chris Clare to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Andy Ewings. Chris Clare won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Clare played 94% better than Andy Ewings in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Clare actually played at a level of 9,256 and Andy Ewings at a level of 4,768. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Clare changes to +3% and Andy Ewings changes to -4.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Clare becomes +1.5% and for Andy Ewings becomes -2.1%. Given Chris Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Andy Ewings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2015/2016' so the adjustment for Chris Clare is +1% and for Andy Ewings is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Clare: 87%, Andy Ewings: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Clare: 82%, Andy Ewings: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 4,950, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Chris Clare: 8,838, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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